ABSTRACT
Objective To predict the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Shijiazhuang using the multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and long short term memory (LSTM) model, lay theoretical foundation for the prevention and control of HFMD. Methods Multiple seasonal ARIMA model and LSTM model were established separately by using Eviews 8.0 and python 3.7.1 according to the data of monthly incidence of HFMD from January 2013 to May 2018 in Shijiazhuang, and the data from June 2018 to May 2019 were used to verify the prediction precision of model. Finally, the monthly incidence from June to August 2019 was predicted. Results Based on the monthly incidence from January 2013 to May 2018, the optimal models, ARIMA(1,0,0)×(1,1,2)12 and LSTM model were established. Mean absolute percentage of error (MAPE) of ARIMA and LSTM model were 22.14 and 10.03 respectively based on the monthly incidence from June to December 2018, while MAPE of ARIMA and LSTM model were 43.84 and 25.26 respectively based on the monthly incidence from June 2018 to May 2019. These results indicated that LSTM model was superior to ARIMA model in model fitting degree and predicting accuracy, which was relatively consistent with the actual situation. Conclusions LSTM model is able to fit and predict the incidence trend of HFMD well in Shijiazhuang. It can provide guidance to HFMD epidemic prediction and alerting.
ABSTRACT
Objective To study the relationship between polymorphisms in interleukin-2gene at position-330 (IL-2-330) and the clinical outcome of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and/or hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Methods 277 subjects were recruited including 79 chronic HCV co-HBV infection, 55 chronic HCV infection, 69 chronic HBV infection and 74 controls. Single nucleotide polymorphisms of IL-2-330 was investigated by restricted fragment long polymorphism-PCR (RFLP-PCR). Hepatocellular injury, as revealed by alanine aminotransferase (ALT) was detected by Beckman LX-20 analyzer. The presence of hepatitis C viral particles in serum was determined by RT-nPCR. Results ( 1 ) IL-2-330 polymorphisms showed close association with persistent HBV and/or HCV infection. IL-2-330 TT was associated with an increased risk, but IL-2-330 GG with a reduced risk of persistent HBV and/or HCV infection (χ2=14.24, P=0.03 ) with ORs (95%CI) as 7.14(2.13-23.81 ), 3.46 (1.17-10.02) and 2.93 (1.15-7.46) respectively. However,IL-2-330 TT/GG did not significantly differ between patients with HBV and/or HCV infection (χ2=2.09, P=0.72). IL-2-330 T allele was associated with an increased risk, but the -330G allele was associated with a reduced risk of chronic HBV/HCV infection (χ2=12.33,P=0.01),with ORs (95% CI) as 2.26 (1.39-3.69) , 1.82 ( 1.09-3.03 ) and 1.73 ( 1.10-2.73 ) respectively. (2) IL-2-330polymorphisms showed significant association with the outcome of HBV and HCV infection ( χ2=13.52, P=0.04). IL-2-330 TT was associated with an increased risk, but-330 GG with a reduced risk of mild CH, moderate/severe CH, and cirrhosis. The ORs (95%CI) appeared to be 3.33(1.75-6.32), 3.31 (1.75-6.26), 11.23 (3.09-40.76) respectively. IL-2-330 T allele was associated with an increased risk, but the -330 G allele was associated with a reduced risk of mild CH, moderate/severe CH and cirrhosis (χ2= 12.32, P=0.01 ), with ORs as 1.86(1.32-2.63), 1.71 (1.27-2.31) and 2.77(1.57-4.89) respectively. (3) The polymorphisms of IL-2-330 showed no association with HCV RNA replication (χ2=0.83, P=0.66; χ2=0.20, P=0.66). The polymorphisms of IL-2-330 were not significantly associated with abnormal ALT ( χ2= 1.10, P=0.58; χ2=0.08, P=0.78). Conclusion These results suggested that IL-2-330 TT/T was associated with an increased risk, but IL-2-330GG/G was associated with reduced risk of persistent HBV and/or HCV infection, and with the development of mild CH,moderated/severe CH,and cirrhosis.
ABSTRACT
Objective To explore the association between polymorphisms of interferon-gamma gene intron 1 at position+874 (IFN-γ+874) gene and the susceptibility of HBV and/or HCV infection with different clinical outcomes. Methods IFN-γ+874 gene SNP were detected in 277 subjects including 79 chronic HBV/HCV coinfections,69 individuals only with HBV infection,55 individuals only with HCV infection and 74 controls,by sequence specific primers-PCR (SSP-PCR). Hepatocellular injury as suggested by alanine aminotransferase (ALT) was detected by Beckman LX-20. The status of viral particles in serum was determined by RT-nPCR. The possible association of the polymorphism of IFN-γ+874 with the susceptibility of HBV and/or HCV infection and the outcome of these infections were analyzed. Results (1) IFN-γ+874 AA frequency in individuals with chronic HBV,HCV,HBV/HCV coinfections were significant higher than that in controls (X~2=16.15,P=0.01); OR (95% CI) of IFNγ+874 AA in chronic infection with HBV,HCV,HBV/HCV coinfections appeared to be 2.70 (1.24-5.92),3.22 (1.43-7.25) and 4.02 (1.88-8.55) compared with + 874 TA. No significant differences were found among HBV,HCV,HBV/HCV coinfections (X~2=1.97,P=0.73). There were no significant association of IFN-γ +874 A/T allele frequency with HBV and/or with HCV infection (X~2=4.87,P=0.18). (2)The clinical outcomes of mild chronic hepatitis (CH),moderate/severe CH and cirrhosis with HBV and/or HCV infection were associated with IFN-γ+874 AA [X~2＝14.17,P＝0.03;OR＝3.09(1.51-6.33),3.85 (1.70-8.70),3.14 (1.08-9.17)]. No significant relationships were found between IFN-γ+874 A/T allele frequency and the clinical outcome of HBV/HCV infection (X~2＝6.07,P＝0.11). (3)There were no significant associations of IFN-γ+874 genotype/allele frequency with HCV duplication (X~2=2.36,P=0.31). (4) There were no significant associations of IFN-γ+874 genotype/allele frequency with abnormal ALT (X~2=0.15,P=0.93). Conclusion These results suggested that polymorphisms in the IFN-γ +874 had some influence on chronic HCV and/or HBV infection,and on the outcome of HCV and/or HBV infections. IFN-γ+874 AA genotype and T allele were possible risk to chronic HBV and/or HCV infections and to the outcomes of HBV and/or HCV infection. However,IFN-γ+874 TA genotype might serve as possible protective factors to them.